Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals faced off at Busch Stadium on Friday, 26 June 2026, with the game concluding late that evening. The crowd-implied probability of 100% YES for the Marlins to win suggests the market has already settled on a definitive outcome, likely reflecting the final result where the Marlins secured the victory. In recent MLB history, markets locking in at 100% before settlement typically occur when a game ends with a clear winner and no ambiguity, such as a tie or cancellation, which would force a 50-50 resolution. This pattern mirrors cases where a team’s win is confirmed by official final statistics, leaving no room for doubt in the resolution process[1][7].

Traders should monitor the official final statistics released by MLB.com, which serve as the primary resolution source for this market[7]. Any announcements regarding game postponements or cancellations would keep the market open until completion, but given the 100% probability, such scenarios appear unlikely. Recent previews highlighted Max Meyer’s strong performance with a 2.31 ERA and 28 strikeouts over four starts, alongside Alec Burleson’s 23-game on-base streak, both factors that may have influenced the Marlins’ dominance in the game[7]. For real-time updates, ESPN’s live coverage provides highlights and updated stats, confirming the game’s conclusion and the Marlins’ win[1]. No further catalysts are expected as the settlement window ends on 4 July 2026, with the outcome already determined.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.