Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Rockies host Oakland at Coors Field on 12 June, with the 51% crowd lean favouring Colorado. Recent weather patterns at Denver's high-altitude venue have shifted toward cooler evening temperatures this week, which typically suppresses offensive output compared to the season average. Both teams' recent form has tightened considerably—the Rockies dropped two of their last three games despite home-field advantage, whilst Oakland has won four of its past six contests, suggesting momentum may not favour the historical home-team edge as strongly as baseline statistics would indicate.

Historical matchups between these franchises show the Rockies maintain a slight advantage in head-to-head records, though the Athletics' recent competitive uptick mirrors their mid-season performance patterns from prior years. The 51% probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than strong conviction; comparable games with similar crowd-implied odds have resolved nearly evenly across the 2024 season, indicating the market has appropriately priced the absence of decisive information.

Pitching assignments remain the critical variable. The Rockies' rotation has experienced inconsistency with injuries to key starters, whilst Oakland's pitching depth has stabilised following mid-May adjustments. Traders should monitor final roster confirmations and any last-minute bullpen availability announcements through 11 June, as these typically shift probabilities by 3–5 percentage points in comparable matchups. Temperature forecasts for game time may also influence total runs, indirectly affecting win probability if either team relies heavily on power hitting.

Methodology

We track Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.