Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Cleveland and Detroit meet again today after a sharp swing in form over the last 48 hours: the Guardians won 8-2 on Monday before Detroit edged the next game, with the teams trading blows in the opening set of this short series. That leaves the market’s 16% yes price firmly in long-shot territory, and it is best read against the broader season context rather than one result alone. Cleveland came in at 29-22 on MLB.com’s standings page, while Detroit remained just above .500, so the market is pricing a road win for the Guardians as the less likely side even before line-up and pitching news is locked in.

Recent head-to-heads point to a tight, uneven matchup rather than a one-way edge. In the ESPN game page for Monday’s opener, Cleveland’s offence was the clear difference, but the follow-up result showed Detroit can still respond quickly in the same series. That kind of split is common in divisional games, especially when both clubs are within a few wins of each other and the venue stays the same. A 16% implied chance suggests the market expects Cleveland to need a meaningful pitching or run-scoring advantage to win away from home.

The main catalysts to watch today are the starting pitchers, final line-ups, and any late bullpen availability from the previous two games. ESPN listed Slade Cecconi as Cleveland’s starter in the first meeting, and if either club changes course late, that matters more than usual in a low-probability market. The game is scheduled for 1:10pm ET, so any confirmed scratches or weather delay would directly affect how quickly the market settles, while a postponement would keep it open until a completed game is played.

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Methodology

This page reviews Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.