Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CF Pachuca O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Querétaro FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CF Pachuca 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| Querétaro FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 60% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 56% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| CF Pachuca 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| CF Pachuca 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Querétaro FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| CF Pachuca O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Querétaro FC O/U 1.5 | 11% |
| CF Pachuca O/U 2.5 | 5% |
| O/U 3.5 | 3% |
| CF Pachuca (-1.5) | 2% |
| Querétaro FC O/U 2.5 | 2% |
| Querétaro FC (-1.5) | 1% |
| CF Pachuca (-2.5) | 1% |
| Querétaro FC (-2.5) | 1% |
| O/U 4.5 | 1% |
| O/U 5.5 | 1% |
| CF Pachuca 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Querétaro FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Querétaro FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
Market context
Pachuca and Querétaro’s Liga MX meeting is still being priced as a one-sided home fixture, and that has not shifted much over the past day: bookmakers have Pachuca around **-196**, with Querétaro near **+450** and the draw about **+300**. That makes the current **2% YES** on “more markets” look far below the mainline view, because the match is already carrying a clear favourite and the extra-markets layer usually needs a sharper in-play or team-news surprise than the standard result market. [1][12]
Historically, this pairing has produced enough variance to keep secondary markets alive, but the balance has usually stayed with Pachuca. Recent comparable pricing has ranged from Pachuca slight favourites to heavy favourites, with some models and tipsters backing Pachuca strongly while older reads were much tighter; that spread matters because “more markets” tends to be driven by whether the game profile turns into a goals, cards, or corners contest rather than a simple home-win script. [3][4][6][7][9][11]
For traders watching the final hours before settlement, the key catalysts are the confirmed line-ups, any late injury or rotation news, and whether pre-match books add player, totals, or disciplinary props as kick-off approaches. Current listing pages show the match for 26 July at 9:00 PM ET, while one odds board still notes “no signals for this match yet”, which suggests the market may be waiting on last-minute dependency resolution rather than fresh public information. [2][5][13]
Methodology
We track CF Pachuca vs. Querétaro FC - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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