Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
56% | 44% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
56% | 44% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 56% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 53% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 46% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 44% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 42% |
| Game Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs SK Gaming (+1.5) | 40% |
| Game 1 Winner | 39% |
| Game 2 Winner | 39% |
| Match Winner | 34% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
Market context
Team Vitality’s match with SK Gaming is priced as a modest Vitality lean, with the crowd putting **39%** on SK despite Vitality carrying the stronger recent profile into the LEC regular-season series. Polymarket’s own event page describes Vitality as 7-4 in the 2026 Versus split versus SK at 3-8, which fits the market’s expectation that SK need a clean read on draft and early skirmishes to overturn the wider form gap.[7]
Recent head-to-heads also point towards Vitality being the more reliable side in this pairing. The teams have met repeatedly across LEC splits, with Vitality ahead on the all-time series and having won their Spring 2026 regular-season meeting 2-1, while earlier 2025 meetings also went Vitality’s way.[16][18] That history matters because BO3s reduce variance versus single games, making the team with the steadier lane-to-late-game conversion easier to back when the price is close to even.[16][18]
The main catalysts today are simple: whether both line-ups are confirmed on schedule, whether there is any last-minute roster or starting role change, and whether the series runs in its expected BO3 slot rather than slipping late in the day.[1][11] If the match is delayed, abandoned, or not completed, the market’s settlement rules can override the competitive result, so traders should watch the LEC broadcast schedule and official match listings rather than just team form.[1][11]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade LoL: SK Gaming vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular … on Prediction Today
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