LoL: Kits Esports vs SDM Tigres (BO3) - LRN Regular season

Platform comparison

Market context

Kits Esports have already secured a 2–0 victory over SDM Tigres in their League of Legends LRN Regular season match, which concluded on 19 July 2026[1]. The market’s 100% YES probability now reflects this settled outcome rather than a live forecast, as the match result is confirmed and no further play is possible.

Historically, prediction markets that lock in at 100% after a match completion typically resolve immediately to the winning team, with no 50–50 settlement unless the event was cancelled or forfeited before a winner was determined. In this case, the full BO3 was played and Kits Esports won decisively, aligning the market resolution with the actual result rather than crowd sentiment[1].

Traders should monitor the official settlement timestamp (2026-07-20T05:10:00Z) and confirm that no post-match disputes or administrative cancellations are announced by the LRN league. While Strafe’s community pre-match polls heavily favoured SDM Tigres at 86.7%, those votes were irrelevant once Kits Esports won the live match[2]. No further announcements or schedule dependencies remain, as the event is complete.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track LoL: Kits Esports vs SDM Tigres (BO3) - LRN Regular season across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.