LoL: FlyQuest vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Platform comparison

Market context

FlyQuest’s series with Disguised is the kind of fixture that has already produced a clear pattern this year: FlyQuest have won every recorded head-to-head in the current run, including a 2-0 in April and a 2-1 in February, while Disguised are still searching for a first win in the matchup.[8][10] That history helps explain why the crowd has priced the market at a near-certain **100% YES** for FlyQuest, even though the settlement rules still leave a small path to a 50-50 outcome if the match is cancelled, delayed too long, or left unresolved.[2][8]

The comparable cases are one-sided as well. Across the listed meetings, FlyQuest have taken the series cleanly or with control of the deciding game, and the public record shows a 3-0 head-to-head edge in recent LCS-era meetings.[1][8] That matters because BO3 markets tend to reflect not just win rate but whether the underdog can reliably extend maps; here, the evidence points to FlyQuest being able to close series before upset equity builds.[3][11]

The main things to watch are operational rather than competitive: official LCS start confirmation, any schedule slips, and whether the series is actually played in full before the settlement window closes.[2] The match was listed for 1 August at 7:00PM ET, and current match listings still point to that same fixture, so the only realistic ways the market moves away from FlyQuest are a late cancellation, an administrative delay, or an extraordinary in-match interruption.[2][4][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews LoL: FlyQuest vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.