Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CA Platense O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CD Coquimbo Unido O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CA Platense 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CD Coquimbo Unido 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CA Platense (-1.5) | 0% |
| CD Coquimbo Unido (-1.5) | 0% |
| CA Platense (-2.5) | 0% |
| CD Coquimbo Unido (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Platense O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CA Platense O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CD Coquimbo Unido O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CD Coquimbo Unido O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Platense 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CD Coquimbo Unido 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CD Coquimbo Unido 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Platense 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CA Platense 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CD Coquimbo Unido 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Platense’s Copa Libertadores tie with Coquimbo Unido is now down to the market’s granular outcomes, and the latest pricing still points to a tight, low-scoring contest rather than a one-sided match. The move in the last day has been limited, but the live book remains consistent: Platense are narrow favourites, with most outlets pricing the home side around even money to slightly shorter, while the draw and Coquimbo are both kept in live contention.[2][8][10]
That is the right frame for a **0% YES** in a “more markets” market, because these contracts usually need a specific extra event or ancillary line to resolve positively, not just the standard result market. Comparable pricing across bookmakers also leans conservative on goals, with under 1.5 and “No” on both teams to score favoured in several snapshots, which reinforces the idea that traders are expecting a compressed, cagey game state rather than a loose, high-variance finish.[1][2][8]
For the next catalyst, watch the confirmed team sheets and any late changes to the match package — especially whether either side rotates, protects a first-leg advantage, or alters its attacking shape before kick-off. ESPN’s market board lists the fixture for 22:00 UTC on 12 August, so the most immediate dependency is whether pre-match odds shift again as line-ups and final availability become public.[2][13] If there is no fresh team news or scheduling change, the probability is likely to remain anchored to the same low-variance setup already reflected in the odds.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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