Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Daejeon Hana Citizen FC | 93% |
| Draw | 6% |
| FC Anyang | 1% |
Market context
FC Anyang and Daejeon Hana Citizen meet in the K League with the market pricing a 1% yes outcome, which is consistent with a close-to-zero upset-style read rather than a routine home or away favourite. The latest 24-48 hours point to a modest shift in tone: Anyang were beaten 3-1 away at Ulsan on 2 August, while Daejeon followed with a 2-0 home win over Gwangju, leaving the two sides arriving on different short-term trajectories.[17][18]
Historically, this fixture has been hard to separate. FotMob’s head-to-head record shows Daejeon with 13 wins, Anyang with 9, and 13 draws, while other matchup summaries also show a high frequency of both teams scoring and recent games decided by fine margins rather than heavy one-sided results.[2][3][12] That kind of profile usually supports a low-confidence price when the market is trying to distinguish between a narrow away edge and another draw.
For traders, the main catalysts are late team news, confirmed line-ups, and whether Anyang’s response to the Ulsan defeat looks like a one-off or part of a broader dip. Daejeon’s recent clean-sheet win is the clearer positive signal, but their season has still featured plenty of low-scoring, tightly balanced results, so any absence or rotation in attack or midfield could matter disproportionately.[4][11][17] Because the settlement window closes at 11:00 UTC, the most relevant developments are the final pre-match squad announcements and any last-minute changes to the expected starting XIs.[1][5]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $68K.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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