July Inflation US - Monthly

Platform comparison

Market context

The US Consumer Price Index for July 2026 will be released on 12 August, with the market currently pricing zero probability of a monthly increase in the seasonally adjusted CPI-U figure. This reflects expectations of either flat or negative monthly change—a notable stance given that monthly CPI readings have averaged around 0.2–0.3% in recent years, with deflation in any given month remaining uncommon outside recessionary periods.

Historical context matters here. Since 2020, monthly CPI swings have ranged from −0.1% to +0.8%, with deflationary months occurring sporadically during supply-chain normalisation and demand softening phases. The 0% probability assigned suggests traders expect July 2026 to fall into that narrower band of flat-to-negative readings. Summer months occasionally show seasonal weakness in certain categories, though the BLS adjusts for this, making the crowd's conviction in a non-positive outcome a meaningful signal about underlying inflation expectations for that period.

The critical data points traders will monitor include June 2026 CPI momentum (released in mid-July), energy price movements through late July, and any labour market signals that might influence wage-driven inflation. The Federal Reserve's policy stance heading into August will also shape how markets interpret the July figure once released. Any unexpected economic data in the weeks before 12 August—particularly on employment or producer prices—could shift expectations, though the current zero probability suggests the market has already priced in a fairly specific disinflationary scenario for that month.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.