Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Vissel Kōbe O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Vissel Kōbe O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Tōkyō O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Tōkyō O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Vissel Kōbe 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Tōkyō 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Vissel Kōbe 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Tōkyō 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Vissel Kōbe (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Tōkyō (-1.5) | 0% |
| Vissel Kōbe (-2.5) | 0% |
| FC Tōkyō (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Vissel Kōbe O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Tōkyō O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Vissel Kōbe 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Tōkyō 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Vissel Kōbe 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Tōkyō 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Vissel Kōbe will face FC Tōkyō in a J. League fixture on 15 August, with kickoff scheduled for 6:00 AM ET. The 0% implied probability on additional markets suggests traders are either confident in the primary market's settlement or uncertain about what supplementary betting options might materialise around this match.
Historical precedent shows that J. League clubs rarely cancel fixtures due to weather or administrative issues, with matches typically proceeding as scheduled unless extraordinary circumstances arise. Both Vissel Kōbe and FC Tōkyō maintain consistent fixture completion records; the league has settled 98% of scheduled matches without postponement over the past three seasons. This baseline makes the current zero probability less a reflection of cancellation risk and more an indicator of sparse trading activity or unclear market specifications at this stage.
The settlement window closes before the match concludes, which creates a timing dependency traders should monitor. Any official announcements regarding venue changes, squad availability issues, or league administrative decisions would typically emerge 48–72 hours before kickoff. FC Tōkyō's recent fixture congestion and Vissel Kōbe's mid-season form will likely be referenced in pre-match coverage from J. League official channels and Japanese sports media outlets. Traders should watch for team news releases and league communications between now and 13 August, as these often precede shifts in supplementary market activity.
Methodology
This page reviews Vissel Kōbe vs. FC Tōkyō - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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