Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CS Herediano O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Puntarenas FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CS Herediano 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Puntarenas FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CS Herediano O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| CS Herediano O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Puntarenas FC O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Puntarenas FC O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| CS Herediano 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Puntarenas FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| CS Herediano 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| CS Herediano 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Puntarenas FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Puntarenas FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| CS Herediano (-1.5) | 0% |
| Puntarenas FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| CS Herediano (-2.5) | 0% |
| Puntarenas FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
Market context
CS Herediano’s latest meeting with Puntarenas FC has already settled into a familiar pattern for traders: Herediano are the stronger side on the numbers, yet the crowd has left this *more markets* contract at **0% YES**, which points to no live interest or no priced expectation on the specific ancillary outcome at the moment. On the wider match line, bookmakers still make Herediano favourites, with odds around 1.67 to 1.98, and model-based previews cluster around a home win with a low-to-moderate scoring total rather than a wide-open game.[1][2]
That reading fits the longer record between the clubs. Recent prediction pages have repeatedly put Herediano ahead in the head-to-head, with win probabilities ranging from about 47.6% to 66.6% depending on the model, while Puntarenas’ win chance is typically kept in the low single digits to high 20s.[2][3][4][9] One live-score record from a previous meeting finished 1-1, showing Puntarenas can blunt Herediano enough to push outcomes into draw territory, but the market consensus still treats that as the secondary case rather than the base case.[8]
For today’s outlook, the main catalysts are line-up confirmation, any late injury or suspension news, and whether the market is tied to a specific first-half or alternate-stat outcome rather than the match winner.[11] Herediano’s pre-match price has held firmer than Puntarenas’ across preview sites, so any shift in crowd probability is more likely to come from team-sheet surprises or schedule-related rotation than from a broad reassessment of the fixture itself.[1][2][4]
Methodology
We track CS Herediano vs. Puntarenas FC - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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