England vs. Ghana

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Active sub-markets

Market context

England’s World Cup meeting with Ghana is now two days away, and the market is still pricing only a **14%** chance that the match settles in the specified window with a YES outcome. The immediate shift in the last 24–48 hours has been on team-news watch, with England reporting a stronger attacking pool for the game and coverage pointing to Rashford and Rice giving Thomas Tuchel’s side a lift, while Saka is again being managed more cautiously[4].

The low implied probability fits a live international mismatch rather than a classic upset market. England have already been described by ESPN as playing their second group match in Foxborough on 23 June, which frames this as a scheduled World Cup fixture rather than an uncertain friendly[1]. Comparable World Cup markets in the run-up to group games typically move more on line-up certainty, rotation risk and qualification context than on broad historical reputation alone; that makes a sub-20% price easier to understand when one side is expected to control possession and chances[1][4].

For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed starting XIs, any late injury or rest decisions, and whether either team’s group position changes before kick-off. FIFA’s match centre is already listing the fixture, while ESPN’s preview has the kick-off time and venue locked in, so the next meaningful swing is more likely to come from official squad announcements and pre-match press conference detail than from schedule uncertainty[1][5]. Watch for whether England keep senior players fresh and whether Ghana arrive with a full-strength attack, because those are the variables most likely to move a one-sided pre-match probability like this[4][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.