Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway - First Team to Score

Platform comparison

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 clash between Côte d’Ivoire and Norway has concluded, with Norway securing a 2–1 victory in regulation time at Dallas Stadium, meaning the market for “first team to score” has already resolved to Norway. The 0% crowd-implied probability for Côte d’Ivoire scoring first was correct, as Norway’s Antonio Nusa netted the opening goal within the first 15 minutes, followed by Haaland and Amad Diallo adding to the tally before Yan Diomande’s late reply for Côte d’Ivoire[6][7].

Historically, knockout ties where one side dominates early often see the first goal scored within the opening quarter, particularly when a player like Haaland—who entered the tournament with four group-stage goals and a flawless qualifying record—is deployed in attack[2]. In similar 2026 Round of 32 fixtures, teams with superior momentum and firepower, such as Norway’s eight-win qualifying campaign, consistently scored first, reinforcing the logic behind the pre-match pricing that heavily favoured Norway[2].

Traders should note that the match is no longer pending; all settlement conditions have been met, and the market will close automatically upon official confirmation of the result. No further announcements, schedule changes, or dependencies apply, as the game concluded on 30 June 2026 with Norway advancing to the Round of 16[4]. The outcome is final, and the market resolves definitively to Norway as the first scorer.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.