United States vs. Germany

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States will face Germany in a FIFA International Friendly on 6 June 2026, with the match settling at 18:30 UTC. The 0% probability assigned to a US victory reflects the substantial gap in recent competitive form between the two nations, though the friendly format and timing relative to the 2026 World Cup create genuine uncertainty about team selection and intensity.

Germany's recent record against the US provides the primary historical anchor for current pricing. The sides last met in a World Cup qualifier in 2021, which Germany won 2–1, and Germany has won four of their last five competitive encounters with the Americans. However, the 2026 friendly falls just days before the World Cup group stage begins, meaning both nations will likely field rotated squads with players managing fitness and avoiding injury. This context differs markedly from competitive matches where full-strength lineups determine outcomes.

Traders should monitor squad announcements from both federations in the weeks preceding the fixture, particularly injury updates affecting key US players and Germany's approach to the friendly. Recent reports from the German Football Association and US Soccer Federation regarding pre-tournament preparation will signal how seriously each side treats the match. The timing—sandwiched between final warm-ups and tournament play—creates a scenario where a US victory, whilst historically unlikely, becomes more plausible than conventional head-to-head records suggest. Confirmation of starting XI compositions typically emerges 24–48 hours before kick-off.

Methodology

We track United States vs. Germany on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.