Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sheffield United FC (-1.5) | 100% |
| Sheffield United FC (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Sheffield United FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Sheffield United FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Sheffield United FC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Sheffield United FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Sheffield United FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Sheffield United FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Mansfield Town FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Mansfield Town FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mansfield Town FC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Mansfield Town FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Mansfield Town FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mansfield Town FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Mansfield Town FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Sheffield United FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mansfield Town FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Mansfield Town FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Mansfield Town have already hosted Sheffield United in the Carabao Cup first round, and the key market signal in the last 24 hours is the result itself: Sheffield United won 3-0 at the One Call Stadium, with Patrick Bamford scoring early before Mark McGuinness and Callum O’Hare added late goals. That leaves the “More Markets” line with a settled, one-sided outcome rather than an open match state, which is consistent with the crowd-implied 0% YES price after the final whistle.[1][2][6]
The broader frame is that this was not an isolated cup meeting. Mansfield shocked Sheffield United 4-3 in the FA Cup earlier in 2026, and the two sides have a recent habit of producing outlier scorelines rather than routine league-style patterns, which matters when reading how quickly cup markets can flip on team selection and game state.[3][5] Sports Mole had also flagged the tie as a first-round meeting between a League One club and a Championship side, with the stronger squad depth generally pointing towards Sheffield United in pre-match pricing.[4]
For traders watching what can still move related markets, the relevant catalysts are confirmation of line-ups, late injury news, and whether either side protects key players given the short turnaround and cup schedule. The Athletic listed several absentees on Sheffield United’s side, including Tom Davies, Rhys Norrington-Davies and John Egan, while BBC and Sky Sports confirmed the match had already gone ahead and finished 3-0, so any remaining movement is likely to come from settlement mechanics, derivatives, or linked live markets rather than the match result itself.[1][2][12]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade Mansfield Town FC vs. Sheffield United FC - More Mar… on Prediction Today
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →