Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 10% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 5% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
Vici Gaming, ranked world 20, faces PARIVISION, the CIS region’s top-ranked squad, in a Best-of-2 Group C clash at the Esports World Cup 2026, with the match live now and crowd-implied odds at 0% for Vici. In the last 24 hours, PARIVISION’s 2-0 sweep by Team Liquid in Group D has sharpened their form, while Strafe users overwhelmingly back PARIVISION with 86.1% of votes, reflecting a stark power gap that mirrors past Esports World Cup upsets where lower-ranked Chinese teams faltered against elite CIS opposition.
Historical precedents from Riyadh 2025 show that when a top-5 CIS squad meets a world-ranked 20+ Chinese team in a short BO2, the higher-ranked side wins decisively unless the lower team secures an early first-map advantage—a rare occurrence given PARIVISION’s 57% winrate and 59% first-blood rate. Traders should monitor live first-blood outcomes and map 1 duration, as delays beyond 45 minutes often signal Vici’s only viable path. Recent coverage from Field Level Media confirms PARIVISION’s momentum after their 25-minute Game 1 victory, and Strafe’s live voting data continues to reinforce their dominance, with no new roster changes or schedule shifts announced as of this afternoon.
The settlement window closes 2026-07-08T21:50:00Z, and any cancellation, tie, or 7-day delay resolves the market to 50-50, though current live scores show PARIVISION leading 0-0 with the match underway. Watch for official tournament updates on DLTV or Strafe for any format adjustments, as BO2 series can end abruptly if one team wins both maps. With PARIVISION’s CIS ranking at 1 and Vici’s at 20, the real-world probability heavily favours the Russian squad, and the market’s 0% odds for Vici align with this structural imbalance.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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