Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 90% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 90% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 90% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: LVLUP (-1.5) vs Team Lynx (+1.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
Market context
Level UP and Team Lynx are scheduled for the Asgard Championship playoffs upper-bracket semi-final, but the market is already pricing the match as effectively settled at **100% YES**. That reflects a real-world mismatch with the field: current tournament listings still place the best-of-three on the bracket path for 8 August, and recent match pages show both teams have been active in the same event rather than withdrawn or delayed out of the competition[6][9][16].
The recent form and prior comparable results both lean in the same direction. Strafe lists Level UP at #34 and Team Lynx at #37, with Level UP winning 5 of its last 5 matches and Team Lynx 2 of its last 5, while Strafe users back Level UP by 90.2%[2]. In the same Asgard bracket, Team Lynx beat PuckChamp 2-1 the day before this fixture, but Level UP also carried momentum by beating FTS 2-1, and historical head-to-head pages point to recent Level UP wins over Lynx in best-of-three play, including a 2-0 result in this tournament’s wider orbit[13][14][7].
For traders, the main catalysts are simple: confirmation that the scheduled best-of-three actually starts, whether it begins on time, and whether the bracket remains intact through the upper side of playoffs. The clearest live checks are official schedule updates and the tournament match pages, because if the series is postponed beyond the seven-day settlement window, cancelled, or otherwise left without a winner, the market rules shift away from a straightforward team result[6][9][16].
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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