Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 91% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 51% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: Team Jenz (-1.5) vs Team Syntax (+1.5) | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Game Handicap: STX (-1.5) vs Team Jenz (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Team Jenz and Team Syntax were already expected to meet in EPL Masters Group A, but the market is now in a thin-information state because the scheduled time has passed and the crowd-implied chance is still at 0% YES. A recent match page and community listing both place this fixture on 26 July, while a match video on YouTube indicates the series did go the distance, with the “team of Stax” winning the encounter in game three.[3][1][2]
The main historical cue here is that this sort of pricing usually reflects either a near-certain read on the reported winner or a stale market awaiting confirmation. In comparable cases, the market should only move decisively once a completed Bo3 result is logged, because the settlement rules also allow for 50-50 treatment if the match is cancelled, abandoned without a winner, or left unresolved beyond the delay window. The presence of a full series result elsewhere would therefore matter more than pre-match sentiment.[1][4]
For traders, the key catalysts are official bracket updates, match-page score changes, and any organiser post confirming whether the series was completed normally or decided by forfeit. The most important dependency is simply whether the result is being recorded as a finished Bo3 or as an incomplete fixture, because that determines whether the market settles to a side or to 50-50. If there is no fresh organiser confirmation, the risk is that different listings lag the actual outcome, leaving the market pinned until the result is made explicit.[1][3]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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