Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

Market context

Aurora face Team Yandex in Round 3 of The International's group stage on 14 August 2026, with the current market pricing Aurora as slight underdogs at 42 per cent implied probability. The best-of-three match is scheduled for 4:00 AM ET, a timing that historically favours teams with established scrim routines in early morning windows. No roster changes or injury reports have emerged in the past 48 hours affecting either squad's availability.

The 42 per cent valuation sits between typical group-stage matchups involving mid-tier regional representatives and established circuit regulars. Aurora's recent LAN placements and head-to-head records against comparable opponents suggest the market may be pricing in Team Yandex's perceived consistency, though The International's group format frequently produces upsets when preparation depth varies. Historical precedent from prior International editions shows teams entering group stages with limited recent international exposure tend to underperform relative to their domestic rankings.

Traders should monitor official schedule confirmations through The International's broadcast channels, particularly any last-minute venue or timing adjustments that could affect preparation windows. Team composition announcements typically arrive 24–48 hours before group matches; any unexpected substitutions would shift the probability meaningfully. The settlement window closes at 16:20 UTC on 14 August, allowing roughly 12 hours post-match for result confirmation. Postponement rules permit rescheduling until 28 August, though group-stage delays remain uncommon unless infrastructure failures occur.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.