Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map Handicap: BST (-1.5) vs ShindeN (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BESTIA (-3.5) vs ShindeN (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BESTIA (-6.5) vs ShindeN (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BESTIA (-9.5) vs ShindeN (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BESTIA (-3.5) vs ShindeN (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BESTIA (-9.5) vs ShindeN (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
Market context
The lower-bracket final between ShindeN and BESTIA has been the live focus of the South American qualifier since the bracket narrowed over the past 48 hours, but the match was still listed as not started in late-day scheduling feeds. Tournament listings place the qualifier window from 28 July to 3 August, with this Bo3 sitting at the final playoff stage that decides who stays alive for the regional path onward.[1][8]
The current **0% YES** price is easiest to read against a fairly balanced recent head-to-head and tournament form. Available match history shows the sides have split their recent meetings, including a BESTIA win and a ShindeN win in earlier Bo3s, while older history also includes multiple close series rather than a one-sided rivalry.[7][9] That profile makes a near-zero market price look more like a timing or listing anomaly than a clean read on match strength, especially with no completed result yet in the current playoff context.[2][4][7]
For traders, the key catalyst is whether the fixture starts and finishes on schedule, because the market can still resolve to **50-50** if it is not played, ends level, or slips more than seven days from the listed date. Watch for organiser schedule updates, bracket changes, and any official start-time shift, since third-party schedules have shown the match as pending while regional qualifier coverage has continued to update the same playoff tree.[1][2][6][14]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs BESTIA (BO3) - StarLadder… on Prediction Today
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