Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Procyon Gaming (-3.5) vs METANOIA WOLVES (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Procyon Gaming (-3.5) vs METANOIA WOLVES (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: PCY (-1.5) vs METANOIA WOLVES (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Procyon Gaming (-3.5) vs METANOIA WOLVES (+3.5) | 0% |
Market context
METANOIA WOLVES and Procyon Gaming are scheduled for a Bo3 in the BetBoom Storm Group Stage, and the market’s 0% YES price is still being pulled by the fact that the fixture was listed for 6 August with no settled live result in the pre-match sources. BO3.gg and tournament schedules place the game in the round-two slot, while the market’s settlement window runs beyond the scheduled start, so any delay, cancellation or unfinished series would matter as much as the on-server winner.[1][6][11]
The historical read is relatively thin, but the comparable data do not point to a one-sided match. The pair have already met this year, with METANOIA WOLVES winning their April Bo3 2-1 in CCT South America, yet both sides have also shown fragility in recent runs: METANOIA have mixed wins and losses across the last few weeks, while Procyon have been repeatedly beaten in South American tier-d events.[2][3][13] Pre-match pricing on the series also leaned to METANOIA, with BO3.gg showing them around 1.21 to win and Procyon at 2.70 on the moneyline, which is consistent with a market that expected a competitive map count rather than a clean sweep.[1]
For traders, the main catalysts are simple: confirm whether the match actually starts, whether the official bracket keeps the same slot, and whether any earlier Group Stage results change the downstream schedule.[6][11] Tournament listing pages note that live statistics were unavailable before play, so a late venue or stream update could be the first real signal that the market should move away from the default no-result risk.[1]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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