Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-3.5) vs Isurus (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-6.5) vs Isurus (+6.5) | 90% |
| Match Winner | 68% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-3.5) vs Isurus (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Isurus (-3.5) vs Patins da Ferrari (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Isurus (-6.5) vs Patins da Ferrari (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-3.5) vs Isurus (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-6.5) vs Isurus (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-12.5) vs Isurus (+12.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-9.5) vs Isurus (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: PDAF (-1.5) vs Isurus (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: ISG (-1.5) vs Patins da Ferrari (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
The Round of 16 match between Isurus and Patins da Ferrari is the live event driving this market, and the crowd has already priced it at a full **100% YES** for Isurus. That reflects a decisive read on the matchup rather than a balanced bracket position, with the key practical issue now being whether the scheduled BO3 actually starts and finishes cleanly before the settlement window closes.[1]
Recent form cuts the other way in terms of raw momentum: Patins da Ferrari came through the Swiss stage with a perfect **3-0** run, including 2-0 wins over ODDIK, Grêmio and METANOIA Wolves, and their core has posted stronger underlying metrics over the past three months than Isurus.[1][2] Comparable CCT South America results also show Patins handling Grêmio 2-0 last week, which is one reason traders have tended to treat them as the steadier side in this section of the bracket.[2]
For the next 24 hours, the main catalysts are operational rather than statistical: confirmation of the start time, any bracket reshuffle or delay notice, and whether the series is played to completion within the seven-day resolution rule. CCT broadcasts and match pages have been updated close to match time in prior series coverage, so late schedule changes or a postponed start would matter more here than marginal pre-match price movement.[1][4]
Methodology
This page reviews Counter-Strike: Isurus vs Patins da Ferrari (BO3) - CCT South America Series 4 Playoffs across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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