Counter-Strike: Infinite vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins

Platform comparison

Market context

Counter-Strike: Infinite and 100 Thieves are due to meet in the Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins, and the line has stayed firmly against Infinite, with the crowd now pricing only about a **27%** chance of an Infinite win. The fixture is listed for **09:00** on 9 August, with the qualifier running over a tight three-day window and the match carrying the usual best-of-three format pressure.[2][6][7]

That probability is consistent with the broader shape of recent form and market sentiment. 100 Thieves have repeatedly been placed as the stronger side in pre-match pricing, while Infinite’s recent record on Bo3.gg shows mixed results rather than a clean upward trend, including losses to stronger European opposition and a win over Betclic in their latest run.[3][12] Comparable prediction pages for this same match have also leaned heavily towards 100 Thieves, with external user sentiment well above the current 27% Infinite line.[7][9]

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: whether the scheduled start holds, whether line-ups are confirmed unchanged, and whether the match is actually played to completion before the settlement window closes at 15:00 UTC. The qualifier is a same-day event, so any delay in the tournament schedule, roster issue, or bracket reshuffle would matter quickly; EsportNow and Bo3.gg both still list the match on the day’s schedule, indicating no public cancellation at the time of writing.[2][5] If the match does not begin, is abandoned, or is pushed beyond the seven-day limit without a winner, the market would resolve 50-50 rather than on the map score.[6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Counter-Strike: Infinite vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.