Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs

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Market context

The real-world event is the Counter-Strike Semifinal 1 match between Inner Circle Esports and Sharks in the Super DraculaN Playoffs, scheduled for 8:00 AM ET today. In the last 24 hours, market sentiment has shifted decisively against Inner Circle, dropping their implied win probability to 0% despite pre-match odds favouring them at 1.78[2]. This stark reversal stems from Sharks’ 0-2 victory over Inner Circle in the preceding Digital Crusade stage, where Sharks advanced to playoffs while Inner Circle plummeted to the Lower Bracket and lost ranking points, sliding from #42 to #43[1].

Historically, such a 0% probability for a team with prior top-40 ranking is rare and usually signals a confirmed roster collapse or a pre-verified forfeit, yet no official cancellation has been announced. Comparable cases in CS2 tournaments show that when a team loses two straight maps to a lower-ranked opponent and then drops to the Lower Bracket, their playoff win probability often collapses to single digits, but rarely to absolute zero unless the match is already deemed unplayable[4]. The current 0% figure suggests the market has priced in a near-certain Sharks victory, possibly anticipating Inner Circle’s Anubis vulnerability and low confidence post-defeat[2].

Traders should monitor the official HLTV match verification and any roster announcements before the 8:00 AM ET start, as a delayed or cancelled match would resolve the market to 50-50[4]. The map veto is the critical catalyst: if Inner Circle bans Nuke to neutralise Sharks’ strongest map, the series could shift to neutral ground, but Sharks’ Anubis weakness remains a key dependency[2]. No recent news source has confirmed a forfeit, so the 0% probability likely reflects extreme market pessimism rather than a confirmed event, making the pre-match verification window the most important timeframe for traders[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.