Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: G1 (-1.5) vs ENJOY (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: GenOne (-3.5) vs ENJOY (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: GenOne (-3.5) vs ENJOY (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: GenOne (-6.5) vs ENJOY (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: GenOne (-3.5) vs ENJOY (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 10% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: GenOne (-9.5) vs ENJOY (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: GenOne (-12.5) vs ENJOY (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: GenOne (-6.5) vs ENJOY (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ENJOY (-3.5) vs GenOne (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 0% |
Market context
GenOne and ENJOY were still listed for a best-of-three in CCT Europe Series #6 Round 3, but the market is already effectively fully priced to GenOne after the line moved to 100% YES. Recent results explain most of that confidence: GenOne beat Honvéd 2-0 on 29 July, while ENJOY have been active in the same Swiss group and are confirmed in the tournament schedule, which reduces the chance that this is a no-show or format issue rather than a played match.[10][12][4]
For context, this is a Swiss-stage BO3 at a CCT event where all group matches are best-of-three and the top eight advance, so a regulated, completed result is the normal outcome rather than a shortened or provisional one.[4][6] The market’s 100% implied probability sits in line with the published match listings and closing-style pricing shown elsewhere, which pointed heavily towards GenOne even before resolution.[1][15]
The main catalysts left are administrative rather than competitive: whether the match starts on schedule, whether any venue or server change is announced, and whether either team issues a late withdrawal or forfeit notice. Multiple listings still showed the fixture as upcoming or not yet started, so traders would mainly watch the tournament pages and team match pages for any status change, since a cancellation, delay beyond seven days, or unfinished match with no winner would force a 50-50 resolution under the market rules.[2][3][4]
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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