Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
56% | 44% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
56% | 44% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 56% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 53% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: INOX Division (-6.5) vs Eternal Fire (+6.5) | 50% |
| Match Winner | 36% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-3.5) vs INOX Division (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-6.5) vs INOX Division (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: EF (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Eternal Fire and INOX Division are scheduled for a best-of-three playoff match in the NODWIN Clutch Series, but the market is already sitting at 0% YES, implying the crowd sees no realistic path for Eternal Fire from here. The match was listed for 17:00 UTC, and live match pages still place it in the round of 16 bracket, with no completed result shown in the available listings.[2][3][9]
The recent form and comparison data do not point to a clean favourite. Strafe’s pre-match model had INOX Division narrowly ahead at 52%, while another betting-oriented preview described Eternal Fire as the stronger side and priced them around 1.43, with a possible three-map series also flagged.[6][7] The teams also had no head-to-head meetings in the previous six months, which makes recent tournament form and map veto quality more important than any direct matchup history.[1]
For traders, the key catalysts are simple: whether the fixture actually goes ahead, whether it starts on schedule, and whether any official bracket or stream updates confirm a completed BO3 before the settlement deadline. Match pages and tournament listings are the most relevant live checks because the market resolves to 50-50 if the game is cancelled, tied, or delayed beyond seven days without a winner.[1][2][3]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs INOX Division (BO3) … on Prediction Today
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