Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Prospects (-3.5) vs Benched gods (+3.5) | 90% |
| Match Winner | 79% |
| Map 2 Winner | 62% |
| Map Handicap: CSH.P (-1.5) vs Benched gods (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Benched gods (-3.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Prospects (-3.5) vs Benched gods (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Prospects (-6.5) vs Benched gods (+6.5) | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 42% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Benched gods (-3.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map Handicap: BG (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (+1.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Prospects (-6.5) vs Benched gods (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
Market context
The immediate change is that the scheduled Round 2 BO3 is live on the calendar for CCT Europe Series #5, but the market is already fully priced at **100% YES** for CYBERSHOKE Prospects, which is unusually one-sided for a match that has a confirmed opposing side. A recent head-to-head cuts the other way: benched gods beat CYBERSHOKE Prospects 2–0 in March 2026 at a CCT Europe event, so the current pricing is not being driven by the most recent direct result alone.[4]
That historical pattern matters because the broader record does not show a stable, dominant edge for either roster. In comparable CCT-style online BO3s, bettors have tended to overreact to single-match recency and roster changes, but the head-to-head available here is at least a reminder that map vetoes and line-up continuity can matter more than headline naming. Strafe’s community vote also leans towards benched gods rather than CYBERSHOKE Prospects, which is the opposite of the current market price and suggests the 100% reading is not broadly shared.[2][4]
The main catalysts to watch are straightforward: whether the match starts on time, whether the fixture is still listed by the tournament operator, and whether either team fields a different lineup from the one used in prior meetings. CCT’s public schedule has previously shown that some series can conclude or move on quickly, so a last-minute change in status would be the key trigger for any repricing.[1][3] The Kalshi-style settlement terms also make timing material: if the match is not played, is tied, or slips beyond the seven-day window without a winner, the market resolves to 50–50 rather than to a team result.[7]
Methodology
We track Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs Benched gods (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #5 Group Stage across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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