Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Benched gods (-3.5) vs Black Phoenix (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Black Phoenix (-3.5) vs Benched gods (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: Black Phoenix (-1.5) vs Benched gods (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: BG (-1.5) vs Black Phoenix (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Black Phoenix (-6.5) vs Benched gods (+6.5) | 0% |
Market context
Black Phoenix face Benched gods in a Counter-Strike best-of-three fixture within the CCT Europe Series #5 group stage, scheduled for 27 July at 07:00 ET. The 0% implied probability suggests either extremely limited liquidity or a technical issue with market initialisation, as both teams have active rosters competing in regional European circuits. This pricing is inconsistent with typical opening odds for matches between established squads in organised league play.
The CCT Europe Series operates as a structured regional competition with fixed scheduling and established protocols for match completion. Historical precedent across CCT fixtures shows matches rarely fail to conclude within the settlement window unless organisers explicitly postpone events. Cancellations or extended delays beyond seven days remain uncommon in this format, making the 50-50 tie-break clause a low-probability outcome. The current odds likely reflect minimal trading activity rather than genuine assessment of either team's competitive standing.
Traders should monitor CCT's official communications for any schedule adjustments or team roster changes in the 48 hours preceding the match. Recent regional European Counter-Strike coverage indicates both organisations maintain competitive lineups, though individual player availability can shift rapidly. The settlement window closes at 17:00 UTC on 27 July, providing a hard deadline for match completion. Any announcement regarding venue issues, technical problems, or unforeseen postponements would immediately alter the resolution pathway and should be cross-referenced against CCT's published fixture list.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Counter-Strike: Black Phoenix vs Benched gods (BO3) … on Prediction Today
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