Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A

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Active sub-markets

Market context

AM Gaming and Eternal Fire are set to clash in the Super DraculaN Group A Lower bracket quarterfinal 2 match today at 2:00 PM ET, with crowd-implied odds currently favouring AM Gaming at 69% YES. In the last 24 hours, the probability has shifted notably upward for AM Gaming, moving from a near-even split to a clear edge, reflecting recent form and head-to-head momentum. This adjustment suggests traders are reacting to AM Gaming’s dominant 2–0 victory over Eternal Fire in the NODWIN Clutch Series earlier this year, a result that still carries weight in current market sentiment [6].

Historically, lower-bracket quarterfinals in CS2 tournaments have shown a 60–70% win rate for teams that previously defeated their opponents in the same tournament cycle, especially when the match occurs within a week of that prior encounter. AM Gaming’s clean sweep in January aligns with this pattern, making the current 69% probability consistent with comparable cases where prior dominance translated into immediate bracket success [4]. However, Eternal Fire’s resilience in recent matches, including a 3–1 map win over Nemiga in the BC.Game Masters, indicates they remain a credible threat if they recover from earlier setbacks [2].

Traders should monitor live stream updates and official HLTLV confirmations for any roster changes or schedule delays, as these can drastically alter settlement outcomes. A recent Liquipedia update confirms Eternal Fire’s active participation in the tournament, but no new roster announcements have been issued as of today [4]. With the settlement window closing at 18:00 UTC on June 24, any delay beyond seven days or an incomplete match will default to a 50–50 resolution, making timing and match completion critical factors to watch [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.