ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland

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Market context

West Indies Women face Ireland Women today at Bristol County Ground in a match with direct semi-final implications, where the crowd-implied probability of a West Indies win sits at 100% despite Ireland holding the toss. In the last 24 hours, win-probability models have shifted decisively toward the Caribbean side, with CricTracker now assigning West Indies an 80% chance of victory against Ireland’s 20% [1]. This mirrors historical patterns in the Women’s T20 World Cup where top-tier teams, even when underdogs in the toss, have dominated lower-ranked opponents in knockout-implication games; Ireland, for instance, has yet to win a match at this tournament despite a recent Tri-Series upset over West Indies by one run via DLS [9].

Traders should monitor the official toss announcement and any late squad changes, as Ireland’s ability to challenge hinges on their powerplay execution and West Indies’ chase stability, with both teams needing a win to secure semi-final spots [4]. The match begins at 1.30pm GMT, and any on-field ruling—such as a DLS adjustment or Super Over tiebreak—will determine the official result per espncricinfo.com [4]. While no major injury news has emerged yet, the semi-final stakes mean both sides will deploy their strongest lineups, and the outcome will be settled strictly by the finalized match report [4]. The settlement window closes on 4 July 2026, leaving ample time for verification of the result.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.