ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

New Zealand and Ireland are scheduled to meet in Southampton, with the match due to start at the Rose Bowl and both sides still searching for a first win in the group phase.[2][5] That makes the market’s 0% yes price hard to reconcile with the live fixture being on the schedule and with New Zealand arriving as the more established side in this tournament context.[4][5]

The historical read is straightforward: New Zealand women have generally carried the stronger T20 pedigree, while Ireland’s results at major ICC events have more often hinged on keeping scores competitive rather than overwhelming opponents.[4] In that sense, a zero-implied chance on the current market suggests either a stale price or a view that the outcome is already effectively decided by wider tournament conditions, rather than a normal pre-match handicap against Ireland.[1][4]

The main catalysts to watch are team sheets, toss, and weather at Southampton, because any rain interruption could bring DLS into play and materially change the shape of the result market.[5] The ICC’s match page still lists the fixture as upcoming, and the competition preview frames it as a standard group match rather than a cancelled or replaced event, so traders should focus on official start-time updates and any late squad news from team or tournament channels.[4][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.