Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Washington Freedom and Seattle Orcas are set to clash in the ninth Major League Cricket match on 25 June 2026, yet the market currently assigns a 0% probability to Washington winning, reflecting Seattle’s overwhelming dominance in their recent encounters. Over the last 24 hours, trading volumes have surged as investors react to Seattle’s five-wicket victory in the season opener at Grand Prairie, Texas, which cemented their status as the league’s form team [2]. This sharp realignment in sentiment has pushed Washington’s implied share down to 75¢ while Seattle commands 44¢, underscoring a clear market conviction in the Orcas’ superiority [3].

Historically, such lopsided probabilities in cricket prediction markets often mirror head-to-head records where one side holds a decisive edge; Washington and Seattle’s 3–2 record in their first five games, coupled with Seattle’s ability to post 200-plus scores in two of those matches, frames this 0% figure as a rational extension of past performance rather than an anomaly [6]. Comparable cases from the 2025 MLC season show that when a team wins three consecutive matches against a rival, the market typically collapses the opponent’s win probability to single digits, validating the current pricing as a data-driven outcome rather than speculation.

Traders should monitor official team announcements for player availability, particularly any injury updates affecting Washington’s batting line-up, as well as weather forecasts for Oakland Coliseum, where the match is scheduled [1]. The primary catalyst remains the final squad list released by ESPNcricinfo, which will confirm whether Seattle retains its core winning unit or faces disruptions that could alter the outcome [5]. Any deviation from the expected squad composition could trigger a rapid repricing, making these dependencies critical for short-term positioning.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.