The Hundred: London Spirit vs Manchester Super Giants

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hundred cricket match between London Spirit and Manchester Super Giants is scheduled for 23 July 2026, with settlement contingent on the final result published by ESPNcricinfo. The current 0% YES probability reflects either extreme confidence in one outcome or minimal trading activity at this early stage—nearly a year before fixture play. The Hundred format, with its compressed 100-ball innings, historically produces tighter margins than longer formats, making pre-season probability assessments volatile and sensitive to squad composition changes.

London Spirit and Manchester Super Giants have competed in The Hundred since its inception, with results varying considerably based on seasonal form and player availability. Historical head-to-head records in this format show neither franchise has established dominance; outcomes depend heavily on the specific squad rosters announced closer to the tournament. Squad retention and auction outcomes, typically finalised in spring 2026, will substantially alter win probabilities for individual fixtures.

Key catalysts for probability movement include the official squad announcements (expected spring 2026), injury updates to key players, and any changes to the tournament schedule. Recent Hundred seasons have seen significant variance in team performance year-on-year, driven by overseas player availability and domestic form leading into the tournament. Traders should monitor franchise announcements regarding retained players and auction strategy, as these directly influence expected match outcomes. The settlement window closes 30 July 2026, allowing only a week post-match for result confirmation via ESPNcricinfo.

Methodology

We track The Hundred: London Spirit vs Manchester Super Giants across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.