Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Atalanta BC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 98% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 80% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Atalanta BC O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Atalanta BC O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Atalanta BC O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Atalanta BC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Atalanta BC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 4.5 | 44% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam (-1.5) | 42% |
| O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam (-2.5) | 17% |
| Atalanta BC (-1.5) | 2% |
| Atalanta BC (-2.5) | 2% |
| O/U 5.5 | 2% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Atalanta BC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
Market context
Feyenoord’s friendly with Atalanta has moved closer to kick-off with the market still pricing the “more markets” angle as a low-percentage add-on, at 12% YES. The fixture is scheduled for De Kuip at 13:00 UTC, and live listings show it as underway or about to be underway depending on feed latency, which is the main reason this market now sits in a very short-dated, information-sensitive window.[6][8]
The historical read is mixed but leans towards caution on the tail outcome the market is asking about. Feyenoord have been scoring freely in pre-season, including wins over Club Brugge and Charleroi, while Atalanta’s recent competitive form was steadier but less explosive, which helps explain why outside models have treated the match as fairly open rather than one-sided.[10][15] Even so, comparative previews have varied materially, with one model leaning towards Feyenoord, another towards Atalanta, and public crowd sentiment split across the main result market, a reminder that friendly-lineups can swing perceived likelihoods quickly.[3][7][9]
The catalysts to watch are straightforward: confirmed line-ups, last-minute squad changes, and whether either side treats the game as a full test or a lighter workout. Because this is a club friendly, late withdrawals and managed minutes matter more than usual, and any official team-sheet or broadcaster update can reprice the broader market faster than historical form does.[2][6][10]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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