Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 91% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 91% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 91% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 79% |
| Spread -2.5 | 72% |
| Spread -5.5 | 68% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 68% |
| Spread -9.5 | 67% |
| Spread -6.5 | 60% |
| Spread -16.5 | 60% |
| Spread -4.5 | 59% |
| O/U 57.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 51% |
| O/U 48.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| Spread -11.5 | 51% |
| UCF O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UCF O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UCF O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UCF O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| Spread -27.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| O/U 68.5 | 50% |
| O/U 70.5 | 50% |
| O/U 74.5 | 50% |
| O/U 76.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Ja'Kyrian Turner: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Cataurus Hicks: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Alonza Barnett III: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Malik Knight: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Duke Watson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Censere Lee: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Dylan Wade: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| La'Vell Wright: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mason Heintschel: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Landen Chambers: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jonathan Bibbs: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Carson Kent: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Josh Derry: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tony Kinsler: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ric'Darious Farmer: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Waden Charles: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| UCF O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| UCF O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| UCF O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| UCF O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| UCF O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| UCF O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| UCF 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| UCF 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| UCF 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 37.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Taevion Swint: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Justin Cook: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Bryce Yates: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Duane Thomas Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Elijah Lagg: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Demetrice McCray: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| UCF 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| UCF 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| UCF 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| UCF O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UCF O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| UCF O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| UCF O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| UCF O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| UCF O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| UCF 1H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| UCF 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| UCF 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| UCF 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| UCF 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| UCF 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| UCF 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -22.5 | 50% |
| Spread -25.5 | 50% |
| Spread -28.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Pittsburgh O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| UCF 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 49% |
| Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 49% |
| Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| Spread -6.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| O/U 60.5 | 48% |
| Spread -21.5 | 47% |
| O/U 58.5 | 47% |
| Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| O/U 72.5 | 45% |
| O/U 36.5 | 41% |
| Spread -14.5 | 39% |
| O/U 42.5 | 31% |
| Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| O/U 66.5 | 27% |
| UCF vs. Pittsburgh | 21% |
| O/U 55.5 | 21% |
| O/U 54.5 | 17% |
| O/U 51.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 8.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 17.5 | 10% |
| O/U 56.5 | 8% |
Market context
The UCF vs. Pittsburgh prediction market currently prices this outcome at 91% YES. In the upcoming college football game between UCF and Pittsburgh, scheduled for September 12 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "UCF" if UCF win the game. This market will resolve to "Pittsburg…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $338K.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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