Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FK Septemvri Sofia O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FK Septemvri Sofia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv (-1.5) | 0% |
| FK Septemvri Sofia (-1.5) | 0% |
| PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv (-2.5) | 0% |
| FK Septemvri Sofia (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FK Septemvri Sofia O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FK Septemvri Sofia O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FK Septemvri Sofia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FK Septemvri Sofia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FK Septemvri Sofia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Septemvri Sofia are due to meet in the Bulgaria Parva Liga, with kick-off set for 18:15 UTC and the market still showing **0% YES**, which points to no fresh confirmation yet on an extra listed outcome market.[4] The most recent change in the last 24-48 hours is simply the fixture moving into the immediate pre-match window; beyond that, the available public data still points to the scheduled match rather than any new cancellation, postponement or format change.[4]
The historical lens is mixed but useful. FootyStats’ head-to-head record says the clubs have met 13 times, with Septemvri winning 7 and Lokomotiv winning 5, which is enough to show that this is not an intrinsically one-sided pairing.[2] A separate FootyStats page records a 7-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv win in one meeting, underlining that the range of outcomes in this fixture can be wide rather than tightly clustered around a single scoreline.[3] For a “more markets” position, that matters because low implied probability is usually easiest to justify when the match context is ordinary and there is no sign of unusual team news or competition disruption.
The key catalysts to watch are line-up announcements, late injury or suspension news, and any last-minute scheduling or venue change, because those are the most likely triggers for extra markets to appear or be priced differently. FotMob still lists the match as scheduled for Lokomotiv Stadium in Plovdiv at the stated time, so the main dependency is whether team sheets and pre-match reporting confirm a routine league start or uncover anything unusual close to kick-off.[4]
Methodology
We track PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs. FK Septemvri Sofia - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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