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Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol - More Markets

Five-platform snapshot of "Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol - More Markets" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

O/U 0.5 100% 1st Half O/U 0.5 100% Cruzeiro EC 1st Half O/U 0.5 100% Cruzeiro EC O/U 0.5 99% Volume: $114K Liquidity: $722K Closes: 5 Aug 2026
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Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol - More Markets

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
O/U 0.5100%
1st Half O/U 0.5100%
Cruzeiro EC 1st Half O/U 0.5100%
Cruzeiro EC O/U 0.599%
O/U 1.579%
Cruzeiro EC O/U 1.576%
Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)69%
Cruzeiro EC O/U 2.563%
2nd Half O/U 1.551%
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 1.550%
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 2.550%
Both Teams to Score in Second Half50%
2nd Half O/U 0.550%
2nd Half O/U 2.550%
Cruzeiro EC 2nd Half O/U 0.550%
Cruzeiro EC 2nd Half O/U 1.550%
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 2nd Half O/U 0.550%
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 2nd Half O/U 1.550%
O/U 2.546%
Cruzeiro EC (-2.5)36%
O/U 3.519%
Both Teams to Score18%
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 0.517%
O/U 5.57%
O/U 4.55%
Both Teams to Score in First Half1%
1st Half O/U 2.51%
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5)0%
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-2.5)0%
1st Half O/U 1.50%
Cruzeiro EC 1st Half O/U 1.50%
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 1st Half O/U 0.50%
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 1st Half O/U 1.50%

Market context

Cruzeiro and Chapecoense have just come through a tight first leg, with the sides drawing **0-0 on 2 August** in the Copa do Brasil tie, so the market’s 69% “YES” price for further activity is being set against a live, level aggregate rather than a one-sided scoreline.[9][18] That is a meaningful shift from the last league meeting, when Cruzeiro beat Chapecoense **2-1** in May, a result that also underlines Cruzeiro’s edge in the recent head-to-head.[3][11]

The broader comparison still points towards Cruzeiro being the steadier side: FootyStats lists Cruzeiro’s recent Copa do Brasil form at **5 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss**, while Chapecoense’s is **1 win, 1 draw and 8 losses**.[7] Head-to-head records are less lopsided than the form lines, but they still favour Cruzeiro overall, with several draws in the recent set and a history of relatively narrow margins between the teams.[7][16][19] That combination usually supports a market that leans to Cruzeiro-related outcomes without implying a blowout.

For traders watching the next move, the key catalysts are likely to be team news, any late rotation after the first-leg stalemate, and whether Cruzeiro choose a more assertive home setup or stay controlled early.[9][18] The recent scoreless first leg means the settlement window is sensitive to anything that changes expected tempo: confirmed line-ups, injury or suspension updates, and tactical hints from pre-match coverage carry more weight than usual. ESPN’s recent match pages and recap coverage are the most relevant public references in the search results for the underlying tie and its latest result.[3][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
and

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