Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| CR Flamengo (-1.5) | 100% |
| CR Flamengo (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Mirassol FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CR Flamengo O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CR Flamengo O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CR Flamengo O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| CR Flamengo 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Mirassol FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CR Flamengo 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CR Flamengo 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Mirassol FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Mirassol FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mirassol FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Mirassol FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mirassol FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Mirassol FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CR Flamengo 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Mirassol FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Mirassol’s home meeting with Flamengo has now been played, and the latest live feeds show a 1-5 away win for Flamengo, which makes the current 0% YES price on any related “more markets” outcome look consistent with the finished result. The settlement window ending at 21:30 UTC on 16 August also lines up with the scheduled kick-off, leaving little scope for a late reversal once the match was completed.
The clearest historical guide is the prior postponed Flamengo-Mirassol fixture in February, which shows that this pairing has already had one scheduling disruption this year, so traders have tended to treat last-minute availability and fixture status as the key risk rather than the team names alone.[9] In normal circumstances, Flamengo’s stronger overall league position and deeper squad would make them favoured in most side markets, but Mirassol’s home record and the possibility of rotation can still keep secondary lines live longer than the straight match result.[10][14]
The main catalysts to watch on the day were team news and late medical calls. Flamengo entered with one confirmed absentee, Vitão, and four further doubts — Bruno Henrique, Luiz Araújo, Alex Sandro and Everton Cebolinha — all subject to assessment before kick-off, which could have affected goals, cards and player-prop style markets.[11] The scheduled venue was Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Mirassol, with multiple listings confirming the 21:30 UTC start, so any change in status would have come from line-up news or a formal postponement rather than the fixture time itself.[2][4][13]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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