Cincinnati Open: Adam Walton vs Ignacio Buse

Platform comparison

Market context

The Cincinnati Open meeting between Adam Walton and Ignacio Buse was on the schedule for 16 August and was still being listed for Court 7 in late updates, with multiple live and preview feeds treating it as an imminent or live second-round match. That keeps the market anchored to whether the fixture is actually played through to a result before the settlement window closes on 23 August.

The crowd price at 100% YES implies the market is assuming a completed advance rather than a cancellation, and the published pre-match expectations were not far apart: some models had Walton around 59-60%, while a live event page showed Buse ranked higher in the ATP field and flagged the match as a 2nd-round hard-court encounter. There is no head-to-head record to lean on, so this is a case where the price is more about draw position, ranking context and whether the match proceeds normally than any established matchup history.

What matters now is scheduling certainty. Traders should watch for official order-of-play updates, any delay to Court 7, and whether the match is moved or postponed beyond the seven-day settlement limit; if it is not completed within that window, the market would resolve 50-50. If the match begins but does not finish, the key dependency is which player is recorded as advancing, since that determines the winner resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.