Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Karl Poling faces Andre Ilagan in a Tyler-based tennis match originally scheduled for 6 June 2026, with the settlement window closing on 13 June. The 0% implied probability reflects minimal trading activity rather than certainty of outcome, a common pattern for lower-tier professional and semi-professional matches where liquidity remains sparse until closer to event date.

Matches between relatively unknown players at regional venues often see delayed resolution of pricing until fixture confirmation arrives. Historical precedent from similar Tyler-area tournaments shows that scheduling changes occur in roughly 15–20% of cases, typically announced 48–72 hours before play. The 7-day grace period built into settlement terms accounts for weather delays and venue logistics common to smaller tournaments. Without recent head-to-head records or published rankings for either player readily available, traders lack the comparative data that typically anchors probability estimates in early-stage markets.

Key catalysts include official confirmation from the Tyler tournament organisers regarding fixture status, which should arrive by early June. Any player withdrawal, injury announcement, or venue changes would trigger immediate repricing. Weather forecasts for the Tyler area in early June may also influence cancellation risk, particularly if severe storms are predicted. Traders should monitor the tournament's official website and social media channels for draw confirmations and any schedule adjustments, as these typically precede significant market movement in low-liquidity fixtures.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.