Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Filip Pieczonka vs Harold Mayot

Platform comparison

Market context

Filip Pieczonka’s match against Harold Mayot is now effectively priced as a one-sided contest, with the market at **0% YES** despite the pair being in the draw for Grodzisk Mazowiecki. Live listings put Mayot around ATP No. 255 and Pieczonka around the 1,000 mark, and the match is shown as a Challenger round-of-32 meeting on hard courts.[1][2][6]

The historical frame is thin: there is **no recorded head-to-head** at the professional level, so the market is leaning almost entirely on ranking gap and level of experience rather than any direct matchup evidence.[2][5] That matters because Pieczonka’s appeal is mostly contextual — a home-soil wildcard-style opportunity against a player with far more ATP-Challenger exposure — while Mayot’s edge comes from being the established tour-level name, even if recent results have been uneven.[8][10]

The main catalysts to watch are simple: confirmation that the match is actually completed, whether the scheduled court time holds, and any late withdrawal or retirement information, because the market only settles on a winner if one advances and flips to 50-50 if the match is not played, tied, or drifts beyond the settlement window without a result. Current scoreboards still list the fixture, but the 0% pricing suggests traders are treating Mayot’s advancement as near-locked unless the schedule changes or the match is interrupted.[3][4][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.