Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto | 54% |
| Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of quito: mwendwa mbithi vs matias soto. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Mwendwa Mbithi and Matias Soto in the Quito, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mwen…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto on Prediction Today
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