Estoril Open, Qualification: Pedro Martinez vs Timofey Skatov

Platform comparison

Market context

Pedro Martinez has already defeated Timofey Skatov 2–0 in their ATP Estoril Open qualification match, securing the win that the market now prices at 100% YES for Martinez advancing [1]. The result, recorded with scores of 6–something in both sets, confirms the outcome before the settlement window closes in July 2026, rendering the market effectively settled on real-world grounds.

Historically, prediction markets on tennis matches that have already concluded resolve swiftly once official results are published, with 100% probabilities reflecting near-certainty rather than speculative confidence. Comparable cases from recent ATP qualifiers show that when a match finishes before the settlement deadline, markets adjust to the actual result within hours, eliminating any meaningful trading volatility unless a formal protest or replay is announced.

Traders should monitor the ATP’s official match centre for any post-match administrative changes, such as a disqualification or score correction, though these are rare in completed qualifiers. No new announcements are expected given the match’s finality, and the schedule shows no further dependencies between these players at Estoril. The only catalyst would be an official ATP notice overturning the result, which has not occurred as of today.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.