Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon Match O/U 21.5 | 75% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon Match O/U 22.5 | 75% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 66% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon Set 2 Winner | 37% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon | 17% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon Set 1 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, swedish open, qualification: igor ribeiro marcondes vs lautaro midon stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Igor Ribeiro Marcondes and Lautaro Midon in the Swedish Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. Th…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Swedish Open, Qualification: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes … on Prediction Today
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