Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw

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Market context

Daniel Galan is scheduled to face Felix Balshaw at the Lyon tournament on 13 June 2026. The match remains on the ATP calendar with no reported withdrawals or scheduling changes in the past 48 hours. Galan, the Colombian ranked outside the top 100, typically competes on the Challenger circuit; Balshaw, a British player, operates similarly at lower professional tiers. The 100% implied probability reflects the baseline expectation that the match will proceed as scheduled and produce a decisive winner.

Matches between players at this ranking level rarely cancel outright, though injury withdrawals do occur in the week leading up to tournament play. Historical precedent suggests that ATP-level fixtures scheduled more than two weeks ahead have roughly a 90–95% completion rate absent major injury news. The settlement window extends to 20 June, providing a seven-day buffer beyond the scheduled date—the threshold for automatic 50-50 resolution if the match is postponed without conclusion.

Traders should monitor the official ATP Lyon draw confirmation and any injury bulletins from either player's camp through mid-June. Galan's recent match results and Balshaw's fitness status will be the primary signals; neither player has a significant injury history that would suggest elevated cancellation risk. The market's current pricing leaves no room for draw uncertainty or fixture delays, so any announcement of postponement or withdrawal would trigger immediate repricing.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.