Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo Gaston

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Market context

Francisco Cerundolo and Hugo Gaston are scheduled to meet in the first round of Roland Garros on 26 May 2026. The 0% implied probability reflects either insufficient trading volume or a technical issue with market liquidity rather than settled conviction about the match outcome. Both players remain active on the professional circuit, with no recent announcements suggesting withdrawal or injury that would prevent the match proceeding as scheduled.

Cerundolo, the Argentine ranked around 30th on the ATP, has historically performed competitively at clay-court events and holds a favourable head-to-head record against Gaston. The Frenchman, currently outside the top 100, has struggled with consistency since his breakthrough run at Roland Garros in 2020 and has faced recurring injury setbacks. Historical precedent suggests that when a higher-ranked player faces a lower-ranked opponent at a Grand Slam, particularly on the favourite's preferred surface, the market typically reflects this asymmetry clearly once trading activates.

Traders should monitor the official Roland Garros draw confirmation and any injury bulletins from either camp in the week before the match. Gaston's recent tournament appearances and ranking points will signal his fitness status. The settlement window closes on 2 June at 09:00 UTC, allowing seven days beyond the scheduled date for completion. Given the early morning start time (05:00 ET), weather delays or scheduling adjustments remain possible, though unlikely to prevent play entirely over the extended window.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.