Granby: Murphy Cassone vs Tristan Schoolkate

Platform comparison

Market context

Murphy Cassone has already defeated Tristan Schoolkate in their Granby encounter, with the match concluding on 14 July 2026 at 14:00 local time, confirming a 100% YES outcome for Cassone advancing [1]. The result overturns the pre-match expectation that Schoolkate, then ranked ATP 108, would hold the edge over Cassone, who was listed at ATP 242 at the time of their previous meeting in February [2][4]. This live resolution means the market has settled definitively, leaving no uncertainty for traders.

Historically, head-to-head records between these two players show parity, with both holding equal career wins against one another, making any single-match outcome highly volatile prior to play [3]. Comparable cases in ATP Challenger events reveal that lower-ranked players often overcome higher-ranked opponents when momentum shifts early, as Cassone did by securing the first set and closing the match without further drama. The 100% probability now reflects a completed event rather than a forecast, aligning with how prediction markets resolve once the underlying contest concludes.

Traders should note that no further catalysts exist for this market, as the match is finished and the settlement window remains open only for administrative confirmation until 20 July 2026. Any delay beyond seven days from the scheduled date would trigger a 50-50 resolution, but this contingency is irrelevant given the match’s completion [1]. With the result confirmed, the focus shifts to Cassone’s next fixture in the Granby tournament, where his progression will determine future market opportunities.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track Granby: Murphy Cassone vs Tristan Schoolkate across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.