US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo

Platform comparison

Market context

Yunchaokete Bu and Borna Gojo were due to meet in US Open qualifying on 26 August, and live scores indicate the match was played on Court 13 rather than remaining a paper fixture. The current 100% YES price reflects that the market is tied to one named player advancing, with no obvious cancellation risk once the match is underway. If the contest has already finished, the only live question for settlement is whether the recorded result holds within the market’s 14-day window.

The frame is straightforward: both players came through their opening qualifying matches, so this is a standard late-round qualifier between two players already acclimatised to New York hard courts. Bu is ranked higher than Gojo in the available listings, and tennis market pricing has generally treated him as the likelier winner, with one live event page showing Bu as the projected winner at 58% against Gojo at 42%. Earlier head-to-head data also favours Bu, which supports why the market has been heavily one-sided.

For traders, the main catalysts are official score confirmation, any retirement or suspension flag, and whether the match was completed in full rather than abandoned mid-way. The US Open qualifying schedule was set across 24–28 August, so any delay or rescheduling would matter only if it changed the official winner before the September settlement cutoff. In practice, the key dependency is the tournament’s published result feed, not pre-match previews or draw listings.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.