Canadian Open: Sebastian Baez vs Mattia Bellucci

Platform comparison

Market context

Sebastian Báez v Mattia Bellucci is effectively a coin-flip on the tennis prices, but the market has been leaning towards Báez since the original Montreal slot, with quoted moneylines clustering around Báez 1.80 and Bellucci 2.00-2.05, and one event page listing a similar split near 53% to 47% for Báez.[1][3][8] That leaves the current 100% YES reading unusually stretched against the broader pricing picture, which has not shown a decisive gap between the pair.[4][12]

For comparison, most pre-match models and sportsbook feeds have treated this as a narrow contest rather than a formality: Dimers has repeatedly put Bellucci just ahead at about 52%, while other books and aggregators have Báez slightly favoured.[4][7][5] In practical terms, that history means traders should read any hard YES price as highly sensitive to whether the match actually takes place and reaches a result, rather than as a clean signal of a one-sided tennis edge.[1][3][12]

The key catalysts now are scheduling confirmation, court assignment, and any official ATP or tournament note on whether the match remains on the board or has shifted.[2][9] Flashscore still lists the fixture for 3 August, while sportsbook and market pages continue to show active pricing, so the main watchpoint is whether the draw runs as planned or whether a delay, walkover, or abandonment changes the settlement path before the 10 August window closes.[1][2][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.